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Chris

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April 22

Blogging a dead horse

Time for puns. The sun is out and the garden is screaming for attention. Grass grows too fast for me, as do weeds. I need more time or they need to slow down a bit, take it easy, chill (hummm).
The farmer of the field at the back of the house has been manuring again, bless. Manuring is like cosmetic surgery, look/smell like shit in order to improve the face of things in a few months time...
Happily some of my cuttings have taken. The carrots, potatoes, beans and other assorted veg are all growing like crazy, flowers are out, the birds are singing, the trees have bursted into blossom and all is well with the world (execpt for that stuff in the other posts).
 
Though for the weekend-
Why are extroverts so self-consumed and introverts concerned about others?
 
April 16

Cricket fixtures list 2006

Cricket for the summer... Less blogging for sure.
 

OCLTC PROVISIONAL FIXTURE LIST – 2006

 

May 6th Teachers v Rest

May 13th & 14th Brampton Brison & Leintwardine C.C.S

May 20th&21st UK. (team name TBA).

(May 27th&28th No Cricket – Summer Ball)

June 3rd&4th Archery Tavern CC

June 24th&25th Wicked Wanderers

July 22nd&23rd Law Society/Lords & Commons and/or I Zingari

August 26th&27th Skylarks CC

September 2nd&3rd Kendall Cup (away)

Sep.15th,16th&17th Butterflies CC and Harrow Wanderers C.C.S

 

Note: This is a provisional list, there are likely to be a few changes.

 

Nets are Programmed for Thursday Evenings, starting in May.

April 09

3 games

3 games of hockey in one weekend is more than my body can tolerate... am in pain. 1 injury (ball to the knee).
April 08

Lapsed bloggers

I'm not alone in the group of people who try their best to write blogs, but who find real life occupies more than enough time already and that writing about it, real life that is, goes out of the window.
 
Since my last entries I have travelled quite a few thousand miles, had my mother to stay for 6 days and worked. In my spare time I have cut the grass, fed myself, cleaned and tidied, done my washing, looked for a new house, looked for a new car, played hockey, gone on a couple of dates, had 5 friends to lunch... a normal life like most other people, so why should I write anything about that? 
 
As the reason I write this blog is for myself, not others, I guess writing down those daily life bits doesn't interest me. I want to record my deeper thoughts, my reactions. For instance the French riots over young peoples employment rights- they are rioting about something I hate about Portugal- here companies can employ graduates for three years before having to give them any job security, meaning most companies have a revolving slave labour which is fired at the end of 3 years. As a manager I hate it, I train people only to see them let go after 3 years of hard and dedicated work, only to have to train another batch... All in the name of "competivity" (see previous entries about competition).
 
I have to go now to do some more real life things, but will be back to try to fathom the deeper meanings of things, I promise.
March 26

Scared ?

The first graph below is of reported atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration from the last 260 years (averaged mixed data sources). If the average human generation time is 20 years, this time period represents just 13 generations, 3 or 4 of which may be alive at the same time. In the last 100 years we have been on a double exponential- less photosynthesis and more combustion of fossilised carbon.
 
Its is very difficult to stop an exponential trend (see previous posts).
 
If we can not turn this trend around, in 2010 we will hit 400ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide, 450ppm by 2025 and 500ppm by 2036. In 2036 I shall still be younger than my mother is today, she will be 100, and my youngest nephew will be 4 years younger than I am now, 31 years old and possibly hoping for a family of his own. That is of course should all/any of us be fortunate enough to be alive.
 
Madness.
 
There are people who don't agree that the planet is also warming up. They cite the data around the second world war as indicating the global temperature trend is not following the same trend as carbon dioxide concentration. Whether or not the war-time data is accurate doesn't matter, the trends are parallel at least since 1880, war-time blip or not- see the second graph.
 
Taking the temperature trend then in 2010 the average temperature will be 0.66 Celsius above 1900 temperature, 1.04 Celsius in 2025 and 1.39 Celsius by 2036, this assuming the latent cold in the polar ice caps doesnt run out.
 
Insanity.
March 19

H5N1

Of course the hype about avian H5N1 influenza virus couldn't have anything to do with the WHO budget problems; the crass abuse of risk communication fear-factors on a problem the general public can do little to abate is scandalous. If a pandemic of adult-fatal influenza does occur there is little an individual can do about it, so it makes no direct sense to communicate in this way.

The avoidance of influenza is not easy, however, an imminent pandemic of adult-fatal influenza is highly unlikely. The references to 1918 Spanish Flu make little mention of the fact that the majority of the worlds population was on the verge of starvation at the end of a 4-year long global war and much more than a third of the population was carrying Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Since 1918 the BCG immunisation program has significantly reduced the tuberculosis infection frequency (at least in developed countries) and the population is not suffering the neglect of 4 years of world war. There are good food supplies (research points to Ochratoxin A and fusarial toxin-associated pathogenicity in 1918) and most adults are sufficiently nourished.

If a pandemic of an avian-human hybrid or a mutated human-virulent avian virus does occur, the likelihood is not a sustained high mortality rate among healthy adults (not that it is impossible during initial epidemic phase). I remember the same hype over Ebola (leading to a number of Hollywood epics) in the past. Why worry the world about this now?

Perchance a political pandemic?

Could the objective be an attempt to get the population focused on issues other than the fact that oil companies are leading us to war over dwindling resources of a fuel that has caused a global pollution capable of truly putting "civilisation" at risk? Or are we so short of memory that there is no recollection of the worrying trends that each of us can do something about.

While the great goal is to live long, accumulate and consume, there is little hope. When the laws of economics are applied to consumerism the ultimate outcomes are seriously pissed-off populations that do not understand they can not go on consuming a resource that is spent.

Why are "we" (you and I are paying, believe me) spending so much on securing a few last drops of an outdated energy source rather than investing all our collective resources in sufficient truly sustainable alternatives? Is there a threat other than those the oilmen are "combating" for us? The politics of the black-stuff are dirty and their policies are robbing all of us of our futures.

March 18

Try the discussion group

    Join Everyones Food Safety    
 MSN Groups

Analysis and management of risk. PORTUGUES

ANÁLISE E GESTÃO DO RISCO:

COMO PODEM ELES CONTRIBUIR PARA MELHORAR A SEGURANÇA ALIMENTAR NA NOSSA EMPRESA?

Doutor Christopher Capell,

Risco é o produto do cálculo da frequência pela consequência de um perigo, que é aumentado pela incerteza.

A avaliação de risco é o processo fundamental na análise de processos actuais, de mudanças de processos e de processos novos. Esta análise não só se aplica ao risco ao consumidor, mas a qualquer perigo identificável. Avaliação de risco permite a selecção da gestão adequada para cada perigo.

Na prática de HACCP, é aplicada a análise de risco à contaminação do produto; avaliando o efeito possível na saúde do consumidor. Esta análise feita pela equipa de HACCP acaba com uma lista de possíveis perigos, com a frequência de encontrar estes perigos, e a consequência provável quando estes de facto existem, assim, são identificados os perigos significativos. A seguir, são identificados os pontos críticos no processo onde os perigos significativos devem ser controlados. Nestes pontos críticos deveremos monitorizar em contínuo os parâmetros necessários para assegurar a eliminação da significância do perigo.

Nesta avaliação de risco do estudo HACCP, também existe a lista de outros perigos não considerados significativos para a segurança alimentar, mas que podem eventualmente ter implicações para a saúde do consumidor. A minimização destes riscos deve ser assegurada pelas boas práticas de fabricação. Resultados das análises efectuadas ao produto deverão evidenciar as frequências de todos os perigos identificados na avaliação de risco HACCP, e ser utilizados nas revisões do processo.

A amostragem pode ser concebida para maximizar a possibilidade de encontrar um perigo. Por exemplo, um processo em contínuo normalmente não sofre de desvios, mas quando está a arrancar ou no re-arranque existe uma maior probabilidade de variação, e por isso, é mais provável encontrar um perigo. Fazendo-se uma amostragem mais frequente nestas circunstâncias aumentaremos o controlo do processo.

Este princípio pode ser utilizado num estudo de um processo de produção, procurando os desvios e avaliando as suas consequências durante todas as fases. Os resultados deste estudo deverão permitir-nos conhecer o processo e, mais uma vez, determinar formas de o gerir.

A gestão de risco também se aplica quando modificamos ou implementamos novos processos ou produtos. Neste caso a avaliação permite-nos identificar as possíveis consequências das mudanças ou prever os perigos possíveis que poderemos encontrar. Nestas circunstâncias os riscos são mais elevados uma vez que não há histórico, e por isso há mais incerteza.

St Paddys and a rainy Saturday.

After a quiet Paddy’s night drinking Guinness and chatting with friends I have spent a quieter day today doing virtually nothing other than working on a document for a Food Safety committee I sit on (meeting next week in Denmark) and catching up on housework.

Work is getting better, less of the obscene hours and a little more co-operation between colleagues. I had to prove a point in my normal stubborn way last week, which was not pleasant, however the outcome should be an marked improvement in our quality management system and hopefully a few more people taking ownership of their responsibilities.

Am feeling a little strange, more detached than normal I suppose. Missed hockey today (couldn't face the rain again), may play tennis tomorrow.

March 12

On competition

Bless me father for I have sinned, it's been two weeks since my last entry.... I'm not catholic, however I could do with some pardoning.
Recent time spent organizing my new group at work and thinking about the future.
 
This weekends ramblings are going to be on something I have been considering for a while and have been experimenting with. Competition.
 
I can understand a spectrum of competition and its effects. The spectrum runs from mutually beneficial through win-lose to lose-lose. On a previous post I wrote about The Prisoners Dilema and how the outcome is either win-lose or lose-lose. There are circumstances where win-win happens, though honestly they are rare. In developing a new team at work I am searching for ways to put a win-win structure in place that rewards mutual benefit and discourages one-sided outcomes.
 
I have a range of personalities working with me, they range from a keen youngster to an experienced man-manager. In setting objectives I have searched for cross-feritilization of competencies and knowledge where the group will benefit only by working together to solve problems. There will be failures before success as, as individuals, they are not used to working as a team and individually are still looking for their personal benefits. I shall celebrate success with all of them, not any individual. I shall highlight the importance of supporting eachother. If anyone is working late, I expect everyone to be working late. I expect everyone to offer help, and for all to ask for help if needed.
 
There will be more to follow...
February 21

Success

Laughing (not at my lack of language skills) and even spontaneous applause !!!
 
Success, at least in part.
 
The presentation was at least entertaining, whether it was educative too I am uncertain of, but the feedback so far has implied that the main messages got across. I hope I didn't upset the university by my somewhat irrevent choice of parody, but there was much thought that went into the presentation. I could have done with a slide for conclusions, but time did not permit (I went on an hour after my allotted time)
 
Very happy, and extremely relieved.
 
******************************
 
February 20

12 hours and counting

I have caught cold thanks to playing hockey during a thunder storm on Saturday.
 
12 hours till the presentation in front of a packed auditorium... >400 participants !!!
 
IN PORTUGUESE !!!
 
Am I insane ?
Hummm, just a jibbering wreck.
 
Will tell you how it went tomorrow !
February 19

Presentation written and ready

The conference starts at 8.30am tomorrow. My presentation is on Tuesday before lunch. It is written but not yet rehersed enough.
 
There is always tomorrow night.
 
Presenting in Portuguese is going to be interesting, if it goes well it will ginve me a really massive buzz.
 
For a dyslexic introverted/semi-agorophobic person who is extraordinarily ungifted in the language department to be able to communicate in a foreign language to a room full of people will be no mean feat, believe me.
 
Deep breath !
 
Lunch today with Peter, Ceu Ian and the gang was good.
Thunderstorms were quite impressive last night. Powercut didn't help. 
February 17

Another week.

Done and dusted.
 
4 days till the Risk Management presentation- in front of >400 people !
 
I think it's good, hopefully it will make people laugh and think...
 
Need to do lots of work on the visual side of it though....
 
So bye for now.
 
February 11

On Communication

Just a thought I would like to expand upon concerning the base problems associated with communication...

In communicating we stand to be misunderstood, is this our fault or the fault of the listener/reader/observer? Is it better to not communicate rather than risk misinterpretation of what we say? In the best circumstances it is a joint responsibility of communicator and audience to arrive at correct collective understanding.

This is one reason I enjoy writing a blog, I can say what I want, in the way I want to say it, without caring about the interpretation by the unknown reader. It would be interesting to receive feedback on your interpretation of my posts; though to receive comment is not the reason I write these communications.

The recent cartoon polemics are based on the reaction (in this case possibly an incited collective reaction) of the reader rather than the content of the cartoon. Surely a hand-drawn image with a couple of words must rely upon interpretation by the reader for the fuller message to be conveyed? This concept is further extended to the ultimate communication based on interpretation, namely art. The image possesses meaning beyond the directly visible subject. Intellect (literally "reading between the words") is the same concept applied to language.

So how do you know how your communication will be interpreted? What intellectual capacity does your audience possess or employ?

One Arab cartoon recently shown in the media simply represents the Star of David with a Swastika superimposed upon it. It is presented in the Western press as representing an Islamic anti-Jewish message. Possibly this was the original concept of the cartoons artist, however, to interpret the image as such is just that, interpretation. Any communication requiring interpretation is by definition ambiguous, so to react violently against your own interpretation is inflammatory. In this case a misinterpretation could come through, for example, an intended use of irony, how can the observer of this cartoon know the intention of the cartoonist?

It is certainly ironical that people are campaigning for "freedom of speech", when what they really want is freedom of expression. To apply this to another area of contension; if the Western world believes in the freedom of expression, how can they condemn pornography? or even condemn a potentially pornographic image of a child? Once again there is the problem of interpretation by the observer, pornography is only pornography when consumed as such, for sexual stimulation. Should the artist not have to defend their work, why should the pornographer? Can Mapplethorpe be condemned if Goya is not? Who is at fault, the producer, the consumer. or both? The grey areas between the black-and-white exist, the spectrum of opinion...

In an ideal world communication would always be rhetorical, a ping-pong of statements, questions and answers allowing approximation between the understanding of the parties involved. War only ensues after dialog ends.

So lets go back to the beginning, "tell me about your childhood..." (see previous posts).

 
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